The Southern Georgian Bay real estate market continues to lean in favour of buyers this summer. In June, residential sales rose 28 percent year-over-year, reaching nearly $185 million in volume. However, the surge in demand was outpaced by a 55 percent increase in new listings, which has pushed inventory to its highest level in years. While the average sale price is holding steady at approximately $838,000 and the median price sits around $729,000, homes are taking longer to sell. The average days on market now ranges between 30 and 59, suggesting that buyers are moving more cautiously, evaluating options carefully, and negotiating with greater confidence.

Across all property types, from in-town homes to rural estates and waterfront properties, buyers have more choice than at any point in recent memory. This abundance of inventory means that sellers must be strategic. Sharp pricing, compelling presentation, and strong marketing are essential in capturing attention in a more selective marketplace.

At the same time, broader economic factors are beginning to weigh on the market. The recent U.S. tariff announcements have introduced a new layer of uncertainty. Canada is now facing a range of tariffs from the United States, including a 25 percent duty on most exports and a 10 percent charge on energy products. In response, Canada has implemented retaliatory tariffs, particularly on materials like softwood lumber, copper, steel, and aluminum. Some of these countermeasures may exceed 30 percent. These developments are already contributing to a weaker Canadian dollar and increased construction costs, which could eventually limit new housing supply and create price pressure in certain segments of the market.

While the Southern Georgian Bay market is primarily driven by local activity, the impact of global trade tensions and economic policy shifts should not be underestimated. Rising costs for building materials may deter new development or renovation projects, while economic uncertainty could affect consumer confidence and spending behaviour. For buyers, this means there is still a valuable window of opportunity, with more selection and negotiating power than we have seen in years. For sellers, it reinforces the need to position properties thoughtfully and respond to market feedback with agility.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the Bank of Canada’s next moves regarding interest rates, as well as how mortgage renewals and household affordability trends evolve through the fall. The overall balance of the market may shift again in the coming months, depending on how these economic and policy factors play out.
For buyers, this is a window of opportunity: favourable conditions, ample selection, and room to negotiate. For sellers, success now hinges on smart strategy: pricing with precision, staging for impact, and working with a team who can navigate market nuances with skill and clarity. Whether you are considering buying, selling, or simply staying informed, this is a moment to pay close attention. Market conditions are changing, and the combination of local dynamics and global developments will shape the opportunities ahead.